Every lifter has asked themselves this question: “Should I increase the weight today?”
Get it wrong in one direction, and you stall. Get it wrong in the other, and you risk injury or form breakdown. It’s a decision that can make or break your progress, yet most people make it based on feel alone.
There’s a better way.
The Problem with “Going By Feel”
Your perception of how hard a set was is notoriously unreliable. It’s influenced by:
- How much sleep you got
- What you ate before training
- Your stress levels
- The music playing
- Whether you’re early or late in your workout
- Countless other factors
This is why two sets that felt equally hard might have been completely different in terms of actual proximity to failure. And proximity to failure is what matters for determining progression readiness.
The Signs You’re Ready to Progress
Rather than relying on subjective feel, here are objective indicators that you’re ready to increase weight:
1. Consistent Rep Performance
If you’re hitting the top of your target rep range consistently across multiple sessions (usually 2-3), it’s time to increase weight.
Example: If your target is 8-12 reps and you’ve hit 12 reps on all sets for the past three workouts, you’re ready to progress.
2. Bar Speed Has Increased
This is harder to measure without video, but if you notice the weight moving faster than it used to, that’s a sign of strength adaptation. Your nervous system has become more efficient at the movement.
3. Lower RPE at Same Reps
RPE (Rate of Perceived Exertion) is a 1-10 scale of how hard a set felt. If the same weight and reps that used to feel like an 8 now feels like a 6-7, you’ve adapted and need more stimulus.
4. Form Has Solidified
When you first learn a movement, much of your effort goes into coordination. As form becomes automatic, more of your energy can go into actually moving the weight. Once form is consistent and controlled, you have capacity for more load.
The Signs You’re NOT Ready
Just as important as knowing when to progress is knowing when to hold back:
1. Form Is Breaking Down
If you’re using momentum, reducing range of motion, or feeling the movement in joints rather than muscles, you’re not ready for more weight. Master the current load first.
2. Inconsistent Rep Performance
Big swings in rep counts between sessions (10 reps one day, 7 the next) indicate you haven’t stabilized at the current weight. Consistency comes before progression.
3. Persistent Fatigue
If you’re feeling ground down, sleeping poorly, or noticing performance drops across multiple exercises, you might be under-recovered. Adding weight would be counterproductive.
4. Joint Pain
Muscle soreness is normal. Joint pain is not. Any persistent pain in elbows, shoulders, knees, or elsewhere means you should address the issue, not add more load.
The Minimum Effective Dose
Here’s a mindset shift that helps: instead of asking “Can I lift more?”, ask “What’s the minimum I need to progress?”
Progress in strength training is not about testing your limits every session. It’s about applying the minimum stimulus needed to drive adaptation. This leaves room for future progression and reduces injury risk.
Think of it like a bank account. You don’t want to be maxed out every session. You want reserves for when you need them.
A Simple Decision Framework
Use this flowchart for your progression decisions:
Step 1: Did you hit your target reps with good form?
- No → Stay at current weight
- Yes → Go to Step 2
Step 2: Have you done this for 2-3 sessions?
- No → Stay at current weight
- Yes → Go to Step 3
Step 3: Do you feel recovered and pain-free?
- No → Stay at current weight or reduce
- Yes → Increase weight by smallest increment possible
The key is consistency before progression. Two good sessions might be luck. Three in a row shows true adaptation.
How Much Should You Increase?
When you do decide to progress, use the smallest weight increment available. For most gyms, this means:
- Upper body exercises: 2.5-5 lbs
- Lower body exercises: 5-10 lbs
If your gym only has 5 lb plates, consider buying fractional plates (1.25 lb or smaller). For hard gainers especially, micro-loading can be the difference between consistent progress and frustrating plateaus.
The Keelow Approach
Keelow removes the guesswork from progression decisions. By tracking your performance data over time, the app identifies when you’ve demonstrated consistent readiness to progress.
It looks at:
- Rep consistency across sessions
- Performance trends over time
- Your historical progression patterns
- Recovery indicators from your training data
Then it gives you a clear recommendation: progress, maintain, or back off.
No more second-guessing yourself. No more missed opportunities to progress. No more injury-risking ego jumps.
Conclusion
The answer to “When should I increase weight?” should never be “When it feels right.” Feelings are unreliable. Data isn’t.
Track your performance, look for consistency, progress conservatively, and you’ll build muscle safely and sustainably.
And if you want to take the decision-making out of your hands entirely? That’s exactly what Keelow is built for.